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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bohemian Waxwing Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Bohemian Waxwing in Alaska has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-79%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bohemian Waxwing Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bohemian Waxwing has collapsed in Alaska: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Bohemian Waxwing Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Bohemian Waxwing in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bohemian Waxwing in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.001.7
20260.060.001.6
20270.030.001.6
20280.010.001.6
20290.000.001.6

Bohemian Waxwing Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Bohemian Waxwing in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toklat1519821982
Nabesna Road1320241990
Northway1120221989
Lake Louise1120121994
Moose Creek920161995
Swan Lake Rd919941993
Eagle820241982
Kanuti Canyn720241994
Goose Bay619761975
Hatcher Pass619851985
Chatanika R520231993
Tangle Lakes519871987
Kuskulana420241990
Coldfoot420221994
Nicholai Sl420211994
Alpenglow (Short)419941994
Bear Creek419901987
Monahan320211987
Cantwell320192001
Unalakleet River320192000
Matanuska319831983
Mt. Fairplay320221995
Mud River320242019
Anvik River320192002
Kenny Lake320221983

Bohemian Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

montanawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.