BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
176Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Bobolink In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.93–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.93–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.93–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.03.5
20272.21.03.4
20282.20.983.4
20292.20.953.4
20302.10.933.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA602025
CoventryvileNEW-YORK532023
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA472024
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA262025
RushPENNSYLVANIA242025
OxfordNEW-YORK231976
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK202019
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA182023
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA182025
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA172025
DrydenNEW-YORK162025
SwainNEW-YORK162007
EllentonPENNSYLVANIA162025
GainesvilleNEW-YORK152023
Oxford 2NEW-YORK152024
CobleskillNEW-YORK142023
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA142025
S Berne 2NEW-YORK132025
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK122025
Phillips CrNEW-YORK122025
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA121999
MiddletownNEW-YORK102013
Mt HopeNEW-YORK101998
AustinvillePENNSYLVANIA102025
S BerneNEW-YORK92013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.