BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
176Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Bobolink In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.13.5
20262.31.13.5
20272.31.13.5
20282.31.03.5
20292.21.03.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Bobolink in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA592024
CoventryvileNEW-YORK532023
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA472024
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA262024
OxfordNEW-YORK231976
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA232024
DrydenNEW-YORK222024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA222024
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK202019
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK182024
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA182023
SwainNEW-YORK162007
S Berne 2NEW-YORK162024
GainesvilleNEW-YORK152023
East JavaNEW-YORK152023
Oxford 2NEW-YORK152024
CobleskillNEW-YORK142023
Phillips CrNEW-YORK142024
RushPENNSYLVANIA142024
RuthbelleWEST-VIRGINIA142024
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA132024
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA121999
MiddletownNEW-YORK102013
Mt HopeNEW-YORK101998
Swain 2NEW-YORK102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.