BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Bobolink in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+162%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bobolink In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.030.20
20260.120.040.20
20270.120.040.20
20280.120.040.20
20290.120.040.20

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Bobolink in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CorydonINDIANA72006
SyracuseMISSOURI62006
PlumKENTUCKY32024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22005
EastviewKENTUCKY21986
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY21978
East UnionKENTUCKY22022
Million 2KENTUCKY22024
LincolnMISSOURI22024
SpencerINDIANA12004
Indian SpgsINDIANA12010
CelestineINDIANA11996
Clear SpringINDIANA11993
New PhilaINDIANA12012
ScottsburgINDIANA11998
MerrimacKENTUCKY11998
GoshenKENTUCKY11998
GlencoeKENTUCKY11974
Buena VistaKENTUCKY11976
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY12018
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY12017
PleasurevillKENTUCKY12018
HaydenMISSOURI12012
SedaliaMISSOURI12023
RichlandMISSOURI12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.