BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Bobolink in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 515% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+515%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Bobolink In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.030.23
20270.140.040.24
20280.140.040.24
20290.140.040.24
20300.140.040.24

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Bobolink in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PlumKENTUCKY222025
CorydonINDIANA72006
LincolnMISSOURI72025
SyracuseMISSOURI62006
RomeOHIO32025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22005
EastviewKENTUCKY21986
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY21978
East UnionKENTUCKY22022
Million 2KENTUCKY22024
SpencerINDIANA12004
Indian SpgsINDIANA12010
CelestineINDIANA11996
Clear SpringINDIANA11993
New PhilaINDIANA12012
ScottsburgINDIANA11998
MerrimacKENTUCKY11998
GoshenKENTUCKY11998
GlencoeKENTUCKY11974
Buena VistaKENTUCKY11976
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY12018
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY12017
PleasurevillKENTUCKY12018
HaydenMISSOURI12012
SedaliaMISSOURI12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.