BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Boat-tailed Grackle in Texas has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-50%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Boat-tailed Grackle Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Boat-tailed Grackle has fallen sharply in Texas: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.001.8
20260.590.001.8
20270.590.001.8
20280.590.001.8
20290.590.001.8

Boat-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Boat-tailed Grackle in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indianola5820241967
Hinkles Fer1720222014
Chinquapin1120241995
Winnie1020241967
Moon Lake620111994
Oyster Lake520231995
Bayside 3420222012
Port Acres320241995
Bayside 2220011998
Stowell220071969
Danbury220242007
Fitzhugh119791979
Bayside120022002
Moon Lake 2120222012

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinavirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.