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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Boat-tailed Grackle in Texas has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-67%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Boat-tailed Grackle Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Boat-tailed Grackle has fallen sharply in Texas: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Texas is projected to rise about 143% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+143%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Texas is projected to rise about 143% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.001.8
20270.560.001.8
20280.560.001.8
20290.560.001.8
20300.560.001.8

Boat-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Boat-tailed Grackle in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indianola5820241967
Winnie2120251967
Hinkles Fer1720222014
Moon Lake620111994
Chinquapin420251995
Port Acres420251995
Moon Lake 2320252012
Bayside 2220011998
Oyster Lake220251995
Stowell220071969
Fitzhugh119791979
Bayside120022002
Danbury120252007
Bayside 3120252012

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinavirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.