BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Boat-tailed Grackle Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida. See the full index history below.

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.25–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.25–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141.026
2026130.8226
2027130.6326
2028130.4425
2029130.2525

Boat-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano80320021987
Tamiami16519741966
Broward15419731966
Andytown14919981974
Kendall14819911987
Boca Raton14219941968
Holey Land11420241987
Indiantown10320171966
Clewiston10120232015
Ridge Harbor6120241991
Davie5520171987
Webb5320241990
Shawano 25120112004
Sandy4820151987
Wildernes Pk4620141992
Lake Buffum4120241987
Alturas4019861971
St Lucie4020241987
Myakka Head3920091966
Scottsmoor3920241968
Dale Mabry3819881966
Salvista3319791967
Devils Gardn3320241987
Citrus Park3120241989
Kissimmee3020241987

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawaregeorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.