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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Boat-tailed Grackle Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Boat-tailed Grackle has fallen sharply in Florida: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 0.03–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 0.03–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026130.8026
2027130.6025
2028130.4125
2029130.2225
2030120.0325

Boat-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Boat-tailed Grackle in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano80320021987
Tamiami16519741966
Broward15419731966
Andytown14919981974
Kendall14819911987
Boca Raton14219941968
Holey Land13420251987
Indiantown10320171966
Clewiston10120232015
Webb9020251990
Ridge Harbor8620251991
Davie5520171987
St Lucie5420251987
Shawano 25120112004
Sandy4820151987
Wildernes Pk4620141992
Lake Buffum4120241987
Alturas4019861971
Myakka Head3920091966
Dale Mabry3819881966
Salvista3319791967
Scottsmoor3020251968
Citrus Park2820251989
Babcock Rnch2619891988
Indiantown 22520252018

Boat-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.