BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.5 (95% range 2.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.5 (95% range 2.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.42.315
20268.42.315
20278.52.315
20288.52.315
20298.52.315

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA711991
MamouLOUISIANA491982
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA372024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA322019
HackberryLOUISIANA252016
EstherLOUISIANA222024
Vinton 2LOUISIANA222024
Port AcresTEXAS222024
RichardLOUISIANA182024
LafitteLOUISIANA171991
KaplanLOUISIANA162023
VintonLOUISIANA162009
MauriceLOUISIANA152024
GlencoeLOUISIANA102018
Forked IslandLOUISIANA102024
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA71982
CreoleLOUISIANA61987
WoodlawnLOUISIANA62021
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA52019
KatyTEXAS52024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS52023
DanburyTEXAS42024
WinnieTEXAS32024
StowellTEXAS32023
Rock IslandTEXAS32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.