BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie has increased: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.6 (95% range 2.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.6 (95% range 2.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.52.415
20278.52.415
20288.52.415
20298.62.515
20308.62.515

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Blue Jay in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA711991
MamouLOUISIANA491982
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA482025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA322019
Vinton 2LOUISIANA322025
Port AcresTEXAS312025
HackberryLOUISIANA252016
LafitteLOUISIANA171991
EstherLOUISIANA172025
RichardLOUISIANA172025
KaplanLOUISIANA162023
VintonLOUISIANA162009
MauriceLOUISIANA152024
KatyTEXAS132025
Forked IslandLOUISIANA122025
GlencoeLOUISIANA102018
StowellTEXAS102025
DanburyTEXAS82025
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA71982
CreoleLOUISIANA61987
WoodlawnLOUISIANA62021
Moon Lake 2TEXAS62025
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA52019
WinnieTEXAS52025
Hinkles FerTEXAS32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.