BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Blue Jay in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 2.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 2.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.43.411
20267.23.211
20276.92.911
20286.72.711
20296.52.510

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Blue Jay in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorvilleNEW-YORK702024
HauppaugeNEW-YORK582018
Jones BeachNEW-YORK382013
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS331994
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY322009
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY302024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE272004
LargoMARYLAND271981
Tall TimbersMARYLAND262014
VillasNEW-JERSEY261981
SinepuxentMARYLAND251978
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS242024
WesthamptonNEW-YORK242024
HuntingtonNEW-YORK242023
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY232013
BeltsvilleMARYLAND222012
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS221976
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS222022
AncoraNEW-JERSEY221977
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY222024
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT212024
New BedfordNEW-JERSEY212024
WestbrookCONNECTICUT202024
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS201983
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.