BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Blue Jay in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181421
2027171321
2028171321
2029171321
2030171320

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Blue Jay in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA1012011
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI772016
Miller XrdsFLORIDA762019
Leaf RiverMISSISSIPPI732013
New HollandSOUTH-CAROLINA692025
BrantleyALABAMA662025
GeorgetownALABAMA592025
New EllentonSOUTH-CAROLINA592025
EufaulaALABAMA552024
OusleyGEORGIA542025
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA531991
FoleyALABAMA521984
TazewellGEORGIA522025
BeverlyMISSISSIPPI512011
ElamvilleALABAMA502025
New HopeFLORIDA502011
Amite RiverMISSISSIPPI492013
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA472022
NeelyMISSISSIPPI472012
HumboldtTENNESSEE472025
NewtonGEORGIA462025
CottonGEORGIA452025
Warrior StdALABAMA442025
GreensburgLOUISIANA442022
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA442025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.