BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161219
2027161219
2028161219
2029161219
2030161219

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoselandLOUISIANA502025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA442025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA432025
CarlisleLOUISIANA371988
GonzalesLOUISIANA322019
KeystoneLOUISIANA282013
IsolaMISSISSIPPI282022
MayflowerLOUISIANA242025
RayvilleLOUISIANA242008
FloydLOUISIANA242021
ConcordLOUISIANA232019
TchulaMISSISSIPPI231975
SaffellARKANSAS222019
GibsonLOUISIANA222019
Rayville 2LOUISIANA222025
River RoadLOUISIANA222025
WhittonARKANSAS201991
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI202025
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI191994
MaynardARKANSAS182025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS182016
TippoMISSISSIPPI182025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA162025
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI162025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA152022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.