BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161319
2026161319
2027161319
2028161319
2029161319

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Blue Jay in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrousvilleLOUISIANA432024
RoselandLOUISIANA412024
MayflowerLOUISIANA382024
CarlisleLOUISIANA371988
Rayville 2LOUISIANA372024
GonzalesLOUISIANA322019
KeystoneLOUISIANA282013
Baton RougeLOUISIANA282024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI282022
RayvilleLOUISIANA242008
FloydLOUISIANA242021
South BendARKANSAS232023
ConcordLOUISIANA232019
TchulaMISSISSIPPI231975
SaffellARKANSAS222019
GibsonLOUISIANA222019
FrogmoreLOUISIANA212024
River RoadLOUISIANA212024
WhittonARKANSAS201991
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA202022
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA202024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI191994
Augusta 2ARKANSAS182016
Morgan CityLOUISIANA152022
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.