BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 4.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 4.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.75.612
20268.55.411
20278.35.311
20288.15.111
20297.94.911

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS492018
EugeneMISSOURI402024
GoshenKENTUCKY381999
RussellARKANSAS362021
New PhilaINDIANA322024
MarshfieldMISSOURI322023
Osage BeachMISSOURI322024
IrontonMISSOURI271980
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI252024
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE252024
PulaskiMISSOURI242024
ClementineMISSOURI242002
Doe RunMISSOURI242024
RichlandMISSOURI232021
Buena VistaKENTUCKY222017
SwedenMISSOURI222024
West PlainsMISSOURI222024
Clear SpringINDIANA212024
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY212013
ReedsMISSOURI212023
GraydonMISSOURI202024
ZionARKANSAS192024
ComptonARKANSAS192022
HillsboroALABAMA181996
CascadeMISSOURI182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.