BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 4.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 4.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.65.612
20278.55.412
20288.35.211
20298.15.011
20307.94.811

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Blue Jay in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS492018
GoshenKENTUCKY381999
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY372025
EugeneMISSOURI372025
RussellARKANSAS362021
MarshfieldMISSOURI322023
Osage BeachMISSOURI302025
AkersMISSOURI282025
IrontonMISSOURI271980
ClementineMISSOURI242002
CentertownMISSOURI232025
MillerMISSOURI232025
Buena VistaKENTUCKY222017
RichlandMISSOURI222025
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY212013
HaydenMISSOURI212025
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE212025
ZionARKANSAS202025
New PhilaINDIANA202025
WilliamsvillMISSOURI202025
LincolnMISSOURI202025
ComptonARKANSAS192022
WescoMISSOURI192025
HildaMISSOURI192025
HillsboroALABAMA181996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.