BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 6.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 6.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025106.614
202610.06.513
20279.96.513
20289.96.413
20299.86.413

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HamtramckMICHIGAN431984
HatfieldWISCONSIN371998
CohoctahMICHIGAN342024
CadottWISCONSIN332024
Belding 2MICHIGAN312024
HamburgMICHIGAN292001
Brook ParkMINNESOTA242024
South BendINDIANA231991
HomerMICHIGAN232024
SaxevilleWISCONSIN232024
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN222024
LapeerMICHIGAN222024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN222024
NashvilleMICHIGAN212024
EdwardsMINNESOTA212024
KnoxINDIANA202024
PettysvilleMICHIGAN201979
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA202024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN192024
MerideanWISCONSIN192024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN182024
N FreedomWISCONSIN182024
St StephenMINNESOTA172016
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN172024
Lake GalenaILLINOIS162021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.