BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.9 (95% range 6.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.9 (95% range 6.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026106.614
2027106.613
202810.06.513
20299.96.513
20309.96.413

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue Jay in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HamtramckMICHIGAN431984
HatfieldWISCONSIN371998
KnappMINNESOTA312025
GalesburgMICHIGAN302025
HamburgMICHIGAN292001
ScottvilleMICHIGAN282025
ParisWISCONSIN252025
South BendINDIANA231991
HomerMICHIGAN232024
MerideanWISCONSIN232025
CohoctahMICHIGAN222025
WiotaWISCONSIN222025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA212025
EdwardsMINNESOTA212024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN212025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN212025
PettysvilleMICHIGAN201979
Brook ParkMINNESOTA202025
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN192025
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN182025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA182025
CadottWISCONSIN182025
Belding 2MICHIGAN172025
SaxevilleWISCONSIN172025
GreshamWISCONSIN172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.