BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Blue Jay in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Jay In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.01–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.01–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.020.51
20260.260.020.51
20270.260.010.51
20280.260.010.51
20290.260.010.51

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue Jay in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BenkelmanNEBRASKA52002
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA52024
LingleWYOMING52024
DaltonNEBRASKA42024
JulesburgCOLORADO32016
PostTEXAS32019
SkellytownTEXAS32010
TwichellTEXAS32017
Wildhorse LCOLORADO22024
Adams Co.COLORADO22021
LimonCOLORADO22019
Fort MorganCOLORADO22024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22018
ArsenalCOLORADO22014
Arsenal 2COLORADO22024
PlymellKANSAS22023
PaxtonNEBRASKA22016
ChampionNEBRASKA22018
HardestyOKLAHOMA22000
ChanningTEXAS22007
DoughertyTEXAS22022
FrionaTEXAS22022
PanhandleTEXAS22006
YoderWYOMING22024
ChugwaterWYOMING22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.