BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Blue Jay in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969
75Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.01–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029
0.26Projected 2029 index
0.01–0.5195% range
±32.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.270.020.51
20260.260.020.51
20270.260.010.51
20280.260.010.51
20290.260.010.51

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue Jay in Shortgrass Prairie.
BenkelmanNEBRASKA52002
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA52024
LingleWYOMING52024
DaltonNEBRASKA42024
JulesburgCOLORADO32016
PostTEXAS32019
SkellytownTEXAS32010
TwichellTEXAS32017
Wildhorse LCOLORADO22024
Adams Co.COLORADO22021
LimonCOLORADO22019
Fort MorganCOLORADO22024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22018
ArsenalCOLORADO22014
Arsenal 2COLORADO22024
PlymellKANSAS22023
PaxtonNEBRASKA22016
ChampionNEBRASKA22018
HardestyOKLAHOMA22000
ChanningTEXAS22007
DoughertyTEXAS22022
FrionaTEXAS22022
PanhandleTEXAS22006
YoderWYOMING22024
ChugwaterWYOMING22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.