BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.41
20260.120.000.41
20270.120.000.41
20280.110.000.40
20290.110.000.40

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA62011
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA62013
Moskee 3WYOMING52024
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA42013
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
SundanceWYOMING42024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA32023
Moskee 2WYOMING32019
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA21993
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA22006
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA21995
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22018
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA22004
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA21997
SeelyWYOMING22000
ShawneeWYOMING21992
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING22019
SavageMONTANA11995
ForsythMONTANA11996
AlbionMONTANA11987
CrookstonNEBRASKA12024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12022
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA12001
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.