BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Jay In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.41
20270.120.000.41
20280.120.000.40
20290.110.000.40
20300.110.000.40

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Blue Jay in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA62011
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA62013
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA42013
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
Seely 2WYOMING32025
Moskee 2WYOMING32019
Moskee 3WYOMING32025
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA21993
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA22006
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22018
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA22004
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA21997
SundanceWYOMING22025
SeelyWYOMING22000
ShawneeWYOMING21992
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING22019
SavageMONTANA11995
ForsythMONTANA11996
AlbionMONTANA11987
CrookstonNEBRASKA12025
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12022
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA12001
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA12000
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.