BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Blue Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 7.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 7.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025107.613
2026107.613
2027107.513
2028107.513
2029107.413

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Blue Jay in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury PdMAINE411968
WarrensburgNEW-YORK362019
ReedsMAINE272024
East CalaisVERMONT272024
RomeMAINE262024
MckeeverNEW-YORK262022
NorthfieldMAINE251981
St JohnsburyVERMONT252024
HarmonyMAINE242024
HudsonMAINE242016
BrooksMAINE232019
AuroraMAINE232021
HardwickVERMONT232024
InletNEW-YORK222017
DegrasseNEW-YORK222024
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE202024
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE202024
HighmarketNEW-YORK202024
Northfld FlsVERMONT202021
EastbrookMAINE192024
Forest StaMAINE192000
MiddlesexVERMONT182024
East HavenVERMONT172024
GreenwoodMAINE162024
WashburnMAINE162005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.