BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Blue Jay in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.515
2027129.515
2028129.615
2029129.615
2030139.615

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blue Jay in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesNEW-YORK312025
BalmatNEW-YORK272008
North PownalVERMONT262025
Valley CityOHIO242025
HopkintonNEW-YORK232021
PittsfieldOHIO232024
CatskillsNEW-YORK212015
TrumansburgNEW-YORK202024
North EastonNEW-YORK202025
GarrettsvileOHIO191991
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK182025
HebronOHIO182025
HamburgNEW-YORK172025
NashvilleNEW-YORK172018
OrleansNEW-YORK162025
Harris HillNEW-YORK162025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK151998
MacdougallNEW-YORK142025
SheridanNEW-YORK142025
PenfieldNEW-YORK142025
OgdensburgNEW-YORK142025
LattasburgOHIO142025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA142025
GhentNEW-YORK122025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.