BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Blue Jay in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.515
2026129.615
2027129.615
2028139.715
2029139.715

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blue Jay in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesNEW-YORK362024
LucerneOHIO302024
OrleansNEW-YORK282024
BalmatNEW-YORK272008
ParishvilleNEW-YORK262024
HopkintonNEW-YORK232021
PittsfieldOHIO232024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA232024
CatskillsNEW-YORK212015
TrumansburgNEW-YORK202024
PenfieldNEW-YORK202024
HebronOHIO202024
Valley CityOHIO202024
HamburgNEW-YORK192024
North EastonNEW-YORK192024
GarrettsvileOHIO191991
LattasburgOHIO192024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK182024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA182024
NashvilleNEW-YORK172018
N WilmurtNEW-YORK151998
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK142024
SalemNEW-YORK142024
Herner CrnsOHIO142024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.