BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 11–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 11–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141117
2026141117
2027141117
2028141117
2029141117

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington IWISCONSIN402024
Red OakMICHIGAN332022
Brush CreekMICHIGAN322016
ChisholmMINNESOTA322024
Union TwpWISCONSIN322024
CunardMICHIGAN312021
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN292010
Frederic 2MICHIGAN262017
Iron RiverWISCONSIN262024
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN242010
GooseneckMICHIGAN242010
Hart LakeMINNESOTA242024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA242022
AmbergWISCONSIN242024
IshpemingMICHIGAN232023
HerronMICHIGAN232016
GlendaleMINNESOTA232024
HarriettaMICHIGAN222024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN222024
Grand ViewWISCONSIN222024
Popple RiverWISCONSIN222024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN222024
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN222024
FredericMICHIGAN212003
BlackduckMINNESOTA212022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.