BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 11–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 11–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141117
2027141117
2028141117
2029141117
2030141117

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue Jay in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union TwpWISCONSIN392025
Washington IWISCONSIN382025
IshpemingMICHIGAN362025
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN332025
Red OakMICHIGAN332022
Sand LakeMICHIGAN332025
Brush CreekMICHIGAN322016
ChisholmMINNESOTA322024
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN312025
CunardMICHIGAN312021
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN292010
WausaukeeWISCONSIN282025
MayfieldMICHIGAN272025
Hart LakeMINNESOTA272025
Frederic 2MICHIGAN262017
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN242010
GooseneckMICHIGAN242010
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA242022
AmbergWISCONSIN242025
Ned LakeMICHIGAN232025
HerronMICHIGAN232016
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN222025
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN222024
SidnawMICHIGAN222025
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN222025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.