BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.51–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.51–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.790.511.1
20260.790.511.1
20270.790.511.1
20280.790.511.1
20290.790.511.1

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TalladegaALABAMA272024
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA191976
StevensonALABAMA182024
GreensportALABAMA152024
ChildersburgALABAMA151999
LakeviewALABAMA132024
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA132021
OmegaOHIO132024
WoodvilleALABAMA122024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA122024
Amos MillGEORGIA122022
KymulgaALABAMA112024
MckeeKENTUCKY112024
CartersvilleGEORGIA102024
MonticelloKENTUCKY102022
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA101992
DearmanvilleALABAMA91983
OneontaALABAMA92023
BrooksvilleALABAMA72023
SunnybrookKENTUCKY72022
ClinchportVIRGINIA71978
ShannonGEORGIA62019
Mt OliveALABAMA52024
Borden SprngALABAMA51998
DrummondALABAMA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.