BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 949% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+949%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 949% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Grosbeak In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.9–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.9–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.74.8
20273.82.74.8
20283.82.84.9
20293.92.84.9
20304.02.95.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaffellARKANSAS202019
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA202025
EnglandARKANSAS192025
DeventerMISSOURI162025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS122016
UlmARKANSAS102025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA92025
ShawLOUISIANA82023
DundeeMISSISSIPPI82022
MoonMISSISSIPPI82021
HughesARKANSAS72025
WilsonARKANSAS72025
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY72025
MayflowerLOUISIANA72025
ConcordLOUISIANA72019
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI72022
West TylerARKANSAS61983
TippoMISSISSIPPI62025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI62025
BlodgettMISSOURI62025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE62025
EudoraARKANSAS52025
KelsoARKANSAS52016
Rayville 2LOUISIANA52025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI51975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.