BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 845% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+845%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 845% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.8–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.8–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.64.6
20263.62.64.6
20273.72.74.7
20283.72.74.8
20293.82.84.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaffellARKANSAS202019
Augusta 2ARKANSAS122016
TippoMISSISSIPPI112024
MaynardARKANSAS102024
ShawLOUISIANA82023
FrogmoreLOUISIANA82024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI82022
MoonMISSISSIPPI82021
BlodgettMISSOURI82024
HughesARKANSAS72023
EnglandARKANSAS72024
ConcordLOUISIANA72019
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI72022
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE72023
West TylerARKANSAS61983
KelsoARKANSAS52016
RoselandLOUISIANA52024
MayflowerLOUISIANA52024
TchulaMISSISSIPPI51975
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI52024
DeventerMISSOURI52024
EudoraARKANSAS42024
AugustaARKANSAS42001
LafeARKANSAS42022
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA42022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.