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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Grosbeak in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Blue Grosbeak In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.5–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.5–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.32.56.1
20274.32.56.1
20284.32.56.1
20294.32.56.1
20304.32.56.1

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA432023
Smyrna 2TEXAS212025
TroutLOUISIANA182025
Mount UnionLOUISIANA142025
PocolaOKLAHOMA142009
FillmoreLOUISIANA131989
ManyLOUISIANA121992
IvanLOUISIANA122013
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA122021
StarkARKANSAS112025
Ivan 2LOUISIANA112025
PhillipsOKLAHOMA112025
SmyrnaTEXAS112010
AshdownARKANSAS102023
SpringhillARKANSAS102022
Flat CreekLOUISIANA102025
HavanaARKANSAS92021
EastonLOUISIANA91990
EvelynLOUISIANA92024
McalesterOKLAHOMA91991
MatoyOKLAHOMA92025
CheniereLOUISIANA82025
HargisLOUISIANA82010
Liberty HillTEXAS82025
Easton 2TEXAS82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.