BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 303% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+303%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 303% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.2 (95% range 2.4–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.2 (95% range 2.4–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.33.8
20273.12.33.8
20283.12.43.9
20293.22.43.9
20303.22.44.0

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS352017
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO292021
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO231997
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO172022
DaltonNEBRASKA162025
WaverlyCOLORADO152019
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO152023
TenmileTEXAS152019
PaxtonNEBRASKA112016
LoganNEW-MEXICO112025
HookerOKLAHOMA112025
LingleWYOMING112024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA102025
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO101975
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO102025
CrawfordNEBRASKA92025
DalhartTEXAS92025
WallaceKANSAS82022
CactusTEXAS82025
NinaviewCOLORADO72024
PritchettCOLORADO72025
PlymellKANSAS72025
KeyesOKLAHOMA72024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS72022
HaswellCOLORADO62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.