BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+305%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.4–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.4–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.23.8
20263.02.33.8
20273.12.33.9
20283.12.33.9
20293.22.43.9

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS352017
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO292021
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO231997
HookerOKLAHOMA202024
TrincheraCOLORADO172022
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO172022
SkellytownTEXAS162024
WaverlyCOLORADO152019
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO152023
TenmileTEXAS152019
PaxtonNEBRASKA112016
LingleWYOMING112024
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO101975
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO102024
LoganNEW-MEXICO102024
Fort MorganCOLORADO92024
WallaceKANSAS82022
BenkelmanNEBRASKA82022
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO82024
NinaviewCOLORADO72024
DaltonNEBRASKA72024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA72024
KeyesOKLAHOMA72024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS72022
FrionaTEXAS72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.