BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Blue Grosbeak In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.50
20260.060.000.49
20270.050.000.49
20280.050.000.48
20290.040.000.48

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrookstonNEBRASKA102024
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA72023
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA62014
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52023
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
Railroad ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA42022
DwyerWYOMING41995
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA32011
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA21975
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA21987
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA21996
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12023
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA12016
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA12017
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA12024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA12021
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA12022
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA12011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA12011
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA11975
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.