BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 92% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.02–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±439.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±439.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 92% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.02–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±439.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.020.38
20260.200.020.39
20270.200.020.39
20280.200.020.39
20290.200.020.39

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HullvilleCALIFORNIA122019
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA92017
French GulchCALIFORNIA62007
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA52024
DaytonOREGON51997
LongvaleCALIFORNIA42023
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA32024
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA32018
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22011
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA22003
Orleans 2CALIFORNIA22014
GazelleCALIFORNIA22019
HolmesCALIFORNIA11969
OrleansCALIFORNIA12006
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA12002
Days CreekOREGON12016
DerbyOREGON11993
Sams ValleyOREGON12018
RuchOREGON12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.