BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±221%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.59
20260.290.000.59
20270.290.000.59
20280.300.000.60
20290.300.000.60

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ComstockTEXAS102017
Ft. DavisTEXAS52008
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO42003
ShafterTEXAS41973
PumpvilleTEXAS32023
EngleNEW-MEXICO21989
Hot SpringsTEXAS21993
Devils R CynTEXAS22023
Chisos BasinTEXAS22024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11993
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12005
PinonNEW-MEXICO12024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12012
Black GapTEXAS12023
LongfellowTEXAS12024
ValentineTEXAS11978
OzonaTEXAS12021
LangtryTEXAS11998
PresidioTEXAS12006
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12004
ToyahvaleTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.