BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 630% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+630%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
146Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 630% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 3.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 3.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.56.7
20265.23.66.8
20275.33.76.9
20285.43.87.0
20295.53.97.1

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND442024
Furnace TownMARYLAND402024
PomonkeyMARYLAND392024
Island CreekMARYLAND282024
Forest GroveMARYLAND272023
La PlataMARYLAND262009
BrandonVIRGINIA262024
PomonaNEW-JERSEY252024
WalkersVIRGINIA252023
TruhartVIRGINIA252024
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY212000
WinslowNEW-JERSEY172024
PomfretMARYLAND162024
BerlinMARYLAND162024
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY152024
White StoneVIRGINIA152024
NottinghamMARYLAND142024
NewarkMARYLAND132024
GloucesterVIRGINIA132024
Tall TimbersMARYLAND122014
Pr FrederickMARYLAND122024
QuinbyVIRGINIA122024
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND112024
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY112022
MillsboroDELAWARE102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.