BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 680% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+680%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
146Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 680% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 4.0–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 4.0–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.43.77.1
20275.53.87.2
20285.63.87.3
20295.73.97.4
20305.84.07.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomonkeyMARYLAND552025
CokesburyMARYLAND482025
Furnace TownMARYLAND422025
BrandonVIRGINIA362025
Island CreekMARYLAND352025
PomonaNEW-JERSEY302025
Forest GroveMARYLAND272023
La PlataMARYLAND262009
JessupMARYLAND262025
HongaMARYLAND252025
WalkersVIRGINIA252023
TruhartVIRGINIA252024
MadisonMARYLAND222025
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY212000
WinslowNEW-JERSEY192025
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY172025
PomfretMARYLAND162024
BerlinMARYLAND152025
White StoneVIRGINIA152025
FredericaDELAWARE132025
Port RoyalVIRGINIA132025
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT122025
Tall TimbersMARYLAND122014
Pr FrederickMARYLAND112025
PepperboxDELAWARE102016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.