BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

24×Since 1969
136Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.80–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029
1.2Projected 2029 index
0.80–1.595% range
±69.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.731.4
20261.10.751.5
20271.10.771.5
20281.10.791.5
20291.20.801.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
WhitewaterMINNESOTA122000
AlmenaMICHIGAN92015
New BuffaloMICHIGAN82014
BravoMICHIGAN72023
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN52013
North BranchMICHIGAN41996
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN42012
N FreedomWISCONSIN42024
HebronWISCONSIN42024
HighlandWISCONSIN42024
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN42024
PackertownINDIANA32004
MontereyMICHIGAN32024
MottvilleMICHIGAN32024
CohoctahMICHIGAN32024
Belding 2MICHIGAN32024
RochesterMICHIGAN32024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN32024
MillvilleMINNESOTA32016
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA32024
HudsonWISCONSIN32016
GilmantonWISCONSIN32024
TrempealeauWISCONSIN32010
CadottWISCONSIN32024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN32013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.