BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

25×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.80–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.80–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.731.4
20271.10.741.5
20281.10.761.5
20291.10.781.5
20301.20.801.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhitewaterMINNESOTA122000
AlmenaMICHIGAN92015
New BuffaloMICHIGAN82014
BravoMICHIGAN72023
MontereyMICHIGAN62025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN52025
NashvilleMICHIGAN52025
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN52013
PardeevilleWISCONSIN52025
ParisWISCONSIN52025
North BranchMICHIGAN41996
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN42012
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA42025
New LisbonWISCONSIN42025
N FreedomWISCONSIN42025
HebronWISCONSIN42024
HighlandWISCONSIN42024
PackertownINDIANA32004
CohoctahMICHIGAN32025
Belding 2MICHIGAN32024
MillvilleMINNESOTA32025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA32025
HudsonWISCONSIN32016
TrempealeauWISCONSIN32010
CadottWISCONSIN32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.