BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+294%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
231Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.5–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.5–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.42.0
20261.71.42.0
20271.81.42.1
20281.81.52.1
20291.81.52.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoselleMISSOURI202024
BelleviewILLINOIS162024
House SpringsMISSOURI152024
GildehouseMISSOURI131989
RobinsonILLINOIS122023
WayneILLINOIS112023
Witts StationINDIANA112024
FilleyMISSOURI112024
Mt VernonILLINOIS92024
WallaceINDIANA92024
WrefordKANSAS92024
FrankfordMISSOURI92024
ColumbiaILLINOIS82023
Grape CreekILLINOIS72024
Le LoupKANSAS72021
KirksvilleMISSOURI72017
HarveysburgOHIO71996
W CarrolltonOHIO72015
MartinsvilleILLINOIS62024
OlsburgKANSAS62024
DanvilleMISSOURI62024
OhioMISSOURI62024
GeraldMISSOURI62024
MilfordMISSOURI62024
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA62022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.