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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

15×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.66.213
20269.86.413
20279.96.613
2028106.814
2029107.014

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RockspringTEXAS372024
Valley SpgsTEXAS192024
San SabaTEXAS192024
HarperTEXAS182024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS182024
LeakeyTEXAS162024
Allen CreekTEXAS122024
AdamsvilleTEXAS102024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS102024
MontellTEXAS92024
KempnerTEXAS72019
Indian MtnTEXAS62024
UtopiaTEXAS52024
Dripping SpgTEXAS52024
BoerneTEXAS42019
PidcokeTEXAS32017
LeanderTEXAS22005
GeorgetownTEXAS11970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.