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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

15×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 7.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 7.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.86.413
202710.06.613
2028106.813
2029107.014
2030117.214

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeakeyTEXAS242025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS212025
RockspringTEXAS202025
San SabaTEXAS172025
Valley SpgsTEXAS162025
HarperTEXAS142025
Pidcoke 2TEXAS132025
Allen CreekTEXAS122025
Indian MtnTEXAS82025
UtopiaTEXAS52025
BoerneTEXAS42019
AdamsvilleTEXAS42025
PidcokeTEXAS32017
LeanderTEXAS22005
GeorgetownTEXAS11970
KempnerTEXAS12025
Dripping SpgTEXAS12025
MontellTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.