BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.41–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.41–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.312.7
20271.50.332.7
20281.50.362.7
20291.60.382.7
20301.60.412.8

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA261994
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA212025
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA122025
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA111994
Beaver CreekTEXAS102025
VerdenOKLAHOMA92017
SicklesOKLAHOMA62021
JetOKLAHOMA62024
ElginOKLAHOMA62015
WellingtonKANSAS52025
ChesterOKLAHOMA51988
DouglasOKLAHOMA42022
PhrosoOKLAHOMA42025
CoatsKANSAS32024
HanoverKANSAS32015
MinneapolisKANSAS32010
ErickOKLAHOMA32022
CashionOKLAHOMA32024
ColonyOKLAHOMA31995
WinchellTEXAS32024
DaltonKANSAS22025
ChapmanKANSAS21981
BuckeyeKANSAS22023
KanopolisKANSAS22025
CovertKANSAS22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.