BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+52%Since 1969
66Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has risen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 184% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.43–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+184%Change by 2029
1.6Projected 2029 index
0.43–2.895% range
±147.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.332.7
20261.50.352.7
20271.60.382.7
20281.60.402.8
20291.60.432.8

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA261994
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA202022
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA111994
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA102022
VerdenOKLAHOMA92017
SicklesOKLAHOMA62021
JetOKLAHOMA62024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA62024
ElginOKLAHOMA62015
ChesterOKLAHOMA51988
KanopolisKANSAS42019
DouglasOKLAHOMA42022
PhrosoOKLAHOMA42024
CoatsKANSAS32024
HanoverKANSAS32015
MinneapolisKANSAS32010
ErickOKLAHOMA32022
HollisOKLAHOMA32016
CashionOKLAHOMA32024
ColonyOKLAHOMA31995
WinchellTEXAS32024
WellingtonKANSAS22024
DaltonKANSAS22024
ChapmanKANSAS21981
BuckeyeKANSAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.