BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has risen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 184% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.43–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+184%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 184% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.43–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.332.7
20261.50.352.7
20271.60.382.7
20281.60.402.8
20291.60.432.8

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA261994
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA202022
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA111994
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA102022
VerdenOKLAHOMA92017
SicklesOKLAHOMA62021
JetOKLAHOMA62024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA62024
ElginOKLAHOMA62015
ChesterOKLAHOMA51988
KanopolisKANSAS42019
DouglasOKLAHOMA42022
PhrosoOKLAHOMA42024
CoatsKANSAS32024
HanoverKANSAS32015
MinneapolisKANSAS32010
ErickOKLAHOMA32022
HollisOKLAHOMA32016
CashionOKLAHOMA32024
ColonyOKLAHOMA31995
WinchellTEXAS32024
WellingtonKANSAS22024
DaltonKANSAS22024
ChapmanKANSAS21981
BuckeyeKANSAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.