BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+143%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.020.19
20270.100.020.19
20280.100.020.19
20290.100.020.19
20300.110.020.19

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Browns ParkCOLORADO72025
Crawford MtsUTAH52023
MaybellCOLORADO42025
SaveryWYOMING41993
Great DivideCOLORADO32019
LayCOLORADO32025
LamontWYOMING31987
NowoodWYOMING22013
TensleepWYOMING22013
MadrasOREGON12025
MonumentOREGON12023
Saleratus CrUTAH11995
E. Bear LakeUTAH12019
BasinWYOMING12025
DuboisWYOMING12013
RiversideWYOMING12007
MooseWYOMING12024
Mtn ViewWYOMING12016
Rock SpringsWYOMING12016
BaggsWYOMING12024
HarmonyWYOMING12014
Flamin GorgeWYOMING12024
Savery 2WYOMING12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.