BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+129%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.010.19
20260.100.020.19
20270.100.020.19
20280.100.020.19
20290.110.020.19

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford MtsUTAH52023
MaybellCOLORADO42024
SaveryWYOMING41993
Great DivideCOLORADO32019
LamontWYOMING31987
Browns ParkCOLORADO22024
MadrasOREGON22024
NowoodWYOMING22013
TensleepWYOMING22013
LayCOLORADO12024
MonumentOREGON12023
Saleratus CrUTAH11995
E. Bear LakeUTAH12019
DuboisWYOMING12013
RiversideWYOMING12007
MooseWYOMING12024
Mtn ViewWYOMING12016
Rock SpringsWYOMING12016
BaggsWYOMING12024
HarmonyWYOMING12014
Flamin GorgeWYOMING12024
Savery 2WYOMING12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.