BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+181%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Black Vulture In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.07–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.07–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.370.040.70
20270.380.050.71
20280.390.060.72
20290.400.060.73
20300.400.070.73

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozona 2TEXAS142025
OzonaTEXAS52022
ComstockTEXAS42025
PresidioTEXAS32025
Devils R CynTEXAS32025
PumpvilleTEXAS22025
Black GapTEXAS12006
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.