BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Black Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+116%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Black Vulture In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 399% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.04–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+399%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 399% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.04–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.020.63
20260.330.020.63
20270.330.030.64
20280.340.030.64
20290.340.040.65

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ComstockTEXAS102023
OzonaTEXAS52022
Black GapTEXAS12006
PresidioTEXAS12022
Devils R CynTEXAS12024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12007
PumpvilleTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.