BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Black Vulture in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 13–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 13–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201228
2026201228
2027211328
2028211329
2029211329

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Black Vulture in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildernes PkFLORIDA2672014
SandyFLORIDA932015
Holey LandFLORIDA712024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA602024
Winter GardnFLORIDA552019
ScottsmoorFLORIDA522024
Indiantown 2FLORIDA472024
TamiamiFLORIDA421974
AndytownFLORIDA401998
Mabel 2FLORIDA332019
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA322021
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA302024
PalmdaleFLORIDA262023
IndiantownFLORIDA252017
Ridge HarborFLORIDA232024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA222011
Sunniland GrFLORIDA222021
DeanvilleFLORIDA222019
Mt. OliveFLORIDA212024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA192024
CorbettFLORIDA192024
PinecrestFLORIDA182024
AlvaFLORIDA182017
Weaver StnFLORIDA182019
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.