BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Piedmont has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

12×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Piedmont: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Piedmont is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.0–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Piedmont is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.0–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.75.3
20274.02.85.3
20284.12.85.4
20294.22.95.5
20304.33.05.6

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Black Vulture in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TaylorstownVIRGINIA1072010
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA882025
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA602025
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA602025
Stoney PointGEORGIA452007
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA372017
OstwaltNORTH-CAROLINA202025
HebronGEORGIA192022
LincolntonGEORGIA182017
BlacksburgSOUTH-CAROLINA182013
HollonvilleGEORGIA171997
Pleasant ValMARYLAND172022
RinggoldVIRGINIA172025
GrovetownGEORGIA142021
TheodoreMARYLAND142016
WedoweeALABAMA132023
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA132025
SaxapahawNORTH-CAROLINA132023
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA102025
MaxeysGEORGIA92024
WashingtonGEORGIA82025
EkloMARYLAND82017
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA82025
Kite LakeGEORGIA72025
EarltonMARYLAND72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.