BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 453% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+453%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 453% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.73.26.2
20264.83.36.2
20274.93.46.3
20284.93.56.4
20295.03.66.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New WaverlyTEXAS232024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA172021
EastonTEXAS162013
Chandler 2TEXAS132024
WechesTEXAS132024
ChandlerTEXAS122004
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS122019
De QuincyLOUISIANA112021
Alexander StTEXAS112024
Smyrna 2TEXAS112023
RamseyARKANSAS101996
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS102019
LongstreetLOUISIANA102024
Old MiloARKANSAS82014
LockesburgARKANSAS82019
EvelynLOUISIANA82024
DibollTEXAS82024
Coal HillARKANSAS72022
CanadianOKLAHOMA72017
NanceARKANSAS62024
GraysonLOUISIANA62017
Hargis 2LOUISIANA62013
AthensTEXAS62024
Union HillTEXAS62024
Big Sandy BithTEXAS62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.