BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasBirds of prey

Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 435% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+435%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 435% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.73.36.2
20274.83.46.3
20284.93.46.3
20295.03.56.4
20305.13.66.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StephensARKANSAS192025
New WaverlyTEXAS192025
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA172021
EastonTEXAS162013
Alexander StTEXAS142025
MortonTEXAS132025
Chandler 2TEXAS132024
Derry 2LOUISIANA122025
ChandlerTEXAS122004
Mt. SelmanTEXAS122025
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS122019
De QuincyLOUISIANA112021
Liberty HillTEXAS112025
RamseyARKANSAS101996
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS102019
NatchezLOUISIANA102025
FredTEXAS102025
WomackLOUISIANA92025
Old MiloARKANSAS82014
LockesburgARKANSAS82019
LongstreetLOUISIANA82025
Burr FerryLOUISIANA82025
EvelynLOUISIANA82024
AthensTEXAS82025
Coal HillARKANSAS72022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.