BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 453% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+453%Since 1969
104Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black Vulture has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 453% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029
5.0Projected 2029 index
3.6–6.595% range
±19.9%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.73.26.2
20264.83.36.2
20274.93.46.3
20284.93.56.4
20295.03.66.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
New WaverlyTEXAS232024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA172021
EastonTEXAS162013
Chandler 2TEXAS132024
WechesTEXAS132024
ChandlerTEXAS122004
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS122019
De QuincyLOUISIANA112021
Alexander StTEXAS112024
Smyrna 2TEXAS112023
RamseyARKANSAS101996
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS102019
LongstreetLOUISIANA102024
Old MiloARKANSAS82014
LockesburgARKANSAS82019
EvelynLOUISIANA82024
DibollTEXAS82024
Coal HillARKANSAS72022
CanadianOKLAHOMA72017
NanceARKANSAS62024
GraysonLOUISIANA62017
Hargis 2LOUISIANA62013
AthensTEXAS62024
Union HillTEXAS62024
Big Sandy BithTEXAS62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.