BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+365%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Black Vulture In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.010.12
20260.070.010.13
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.010.13
20290.070.020.13

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WainwrightOKLAHOMA132013
CubaOHIO92024
Witts StationINDIANA52024
MilroyINDIANA41986
EnonOHIO32024
ColumbiaILLINOIS22024
SextonINDIANA22024
BrookvilleINDIANA22024
WelchOKLAHOMA22016
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA22022
DudleyvilleILLINOIS12021
ShelbyvilleINDIANA12024
WallaceINDIANA12024
MarionOHIO12022
FultonOHIO12024
DarrtownOHIO12021
Ash RidgeOHIO12017
Harveysburg 2OHIO12023
PeoriaOKLAHOMA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.