BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+402%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Black Vulture In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.02–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.02–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.010.13
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.020.13
20290.070.020.13
20300.080.020.13

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WainwrightOKLAHOMA132013
CubaOHIO92024
Harveysburg 2OHIO92025
MilroyINDIANA41986
EnonOHIO32024
ColumbiaILLINOIS22025
SextonINDIANA22024
BrookvilleINDIANA22024
WelchOKLAHOMA22016
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA22022
BeaucoupILLINOIS12025
DudleyvilleILLINOIS12021
ShelbyvilleINDIANA12024
WallaceINDIANA12024
Witts StationINDIANA12025
MarionOHIO12022
FultonOHIO12024
DarrtownOHIO12021
Ash RidgeOHIO12017
PeoriaOKLAHOMA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.