BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

22×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 9.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 9.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.514
2027128.714
2028128.915
2029129.215
2030129.415

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black Vulture in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaigeTEXAS842025
Three RiversTEXAS662025
OakwoodTEXAS531995
CarlosTEXAS462025
SchroederTEXAS421997
Massey LakeTEXAS412025
SadlerTEXAS412025
BonnerTEXAS322025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS322019
DuranTEXAS291999
Lone OakTEXAS282022
OlaTEXAS252025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS232025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS202025
KosseTEXAS182023
MuldoonTEXAS172025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA142025
HenriettaTEXAS142022
CleburneTEXAS142025
OsageTEXAS132025
SeldenTEXAS132025
TatumsOKLAHOMA122019
HearneTEXAS122025
DallasTEXAS112025
CayugaTEXAS112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.