BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

21×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 9.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 9.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.214
2026118.414
2027118.614
2028128.814
2029129.015

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black Vulture in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaigeTEXAS1022024
OakwoodTEXAS531995
SchroederTEXAS421997
Oak Grove 2TEXAS422024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS322019
LockhartTEXAS312024
SeldenTEXAS312024
OlaTEXAS292024
DuranTEXAS291999
Lone OakTEXAS282022
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA252018
DallasTEXAS222024
Three RiversTEXAS222024
Mount ZionTEXAS202024
SadlerTEXAS192024
CayugaTEXAS192024
KosseTEXAS182023
HearneTEXAS172024
YoakumTEXAS162024
HenriettaTEXAS142022
MuldoonTEXAS132024
TatumsOKLAHOMA122019
OsageTEXAS122024
Miller GroveTEXAS112024
WeatherfordTEXAS102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.