BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+295%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.215
2027116.415
2028116.616
2029116.816
2030117.016

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Black Vulture in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS742024
MontellTEXAS292025
Valley SpgsTEXAS212025
Manor 2TEXAS202025
AdamsvilleTEXAS192025
HarperTEXAS152025
Dripping SpgTEXAS122025
BoerneTEXAS112025
LeanderTEXAS112006
FitzhughTEXAS91983
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS82025
Pidcoke 2TEXAS72025
PidcokeTEXAS62017
Indian MtnTEXAS52025
UtopiaTEXAS42025
RockspringTEXAS42025
LeakeyTEXAS22025
Allen CreekTEXAS22025
GeorgetownTEXAS11984
San SabaTEXAS12025
KempnerTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.