BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Black Vulture in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+283%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 6.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 6.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.115
2026116.215
2027116.415
2028116.616
2029116.816

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Black Vulture in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS742024
AdamsvilleTEXAS332024
UtopiaTEXAS242024
LeanderTEXAS112006
FitzhughTEXAS91983
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS92024
HarperTEXAS82024
PidcokeTEXAS62017
Indian MtnTEXAS62024
Dripping SpgTEXAS62024
Valley SpgsTEXAS52024
LeakeyTEXAS52024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS42024
Allen CreekTEXAS42024
RockspringTEXAS32024
BoerneTEXAS22023
MontellTEXAS22024
GeorgetownTEXAS11984
San SabaTEXAS12022
KempnerTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.