BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 4.4–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 4.4–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026255.744
2027255.444
2028245.044
2029244.743
2030244.443

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PumpvilleTEXAS1662025
Devils R CynTEXAS1052025
Casa PiedraTEXAS862025
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO742025
Black GapTEXAS642025
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO612025
Delaware CrkTEXAS572015
LangtryTEXAS542000
Bear MtnTEXAS472025
ComstockTEXAS442025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO432025
Salt FlatTEXAS382015
Sierra BlancTEXAS382025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS372025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO362025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO352019
JornadaNEW-MEXICO332025
MarfaTEXAS332025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO322025
ShafterTEXAS321985
Chisos BasinTEXAS322025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO312025
GirvinTEXAS302025
ToyahvaleTEXAS292025
SlaughterTEXAS272021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.