BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 3.9–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 3.9–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025245.344
2026244.943
2027244.643
2028234.243
2029233.942

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PumpvilleTEXAS852024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO722024
Casa PiedraTEXAS662023
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO602024
Delaware CrkTEXAS572015
Devils R CynTEXAS562024
LangtryTEXAS542000
PresidioTEXAS492023
GageNEW-MEXICO462024
LongfellowTEXAS412024
Coyanda DrawTEXAS412024
Black GapTEXAS382023
Salt FlatTEXAS382015
Red RockNEW-MEXICO372024
GirvinTEXAS362024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO352019
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO342024
ShafterTEXAS321985
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO302024
Hot SpringsTEXAS292024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO282024
SlaughterTEXAS272021
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO241977
EngleNEW-MEXICO241989
ToyahvaleTEXAS242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.