BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 1.6–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 1.6–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191.937
2026191.837
2027191.837
2028191.737
2029191.637

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA761981
NelsonNEVADA692024
BarstowCALIFORNIA641998
CimaCALIFORNIA582021
RivieraARIZONA532024
Cutter 2ARIZONA522018
IvanpahCALIFORNIA522019
BeattyNEVADA502024
WickenburgARIZONA492023
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA492016
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA472024
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA442005
AntaresARIZONA412024
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA402024
FlynnCALIFORNIA401996
Willow BeachARIZONA381997
Silver PeakNEVADA382006
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA372024
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA332023
EssexCALIFORNIA311996
NeedlesCALIFORNIA311973
AjoARIZONA292008
Lone PineCALIFORNIA282024
Lane MtnCALIFORNIA271973
PisinimoARIZONA251993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.