BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 1.5–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 1.5–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191.837
2027191.736
2028191.636
2029191.636
2030191.536

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RivieraARIZONA822025
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA761981
BarstowCALIFORNIA641998
CimaCALIFORNIA582021
Cutter 2ARIZONA522018
IvanpahCALIFORNIA522019
WickenburgARIZONA492023
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA442005
FlynnCALIFORNIA401996
Willow BeachARIZONA381997
Silver PeakNEVADA382006
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA342025
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA332023
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA322025
EssexCALIFORNIA311996
NeedlesCALIFORNIA311973
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA312025
NelsonNEVADA312025
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA302025
Val Of FireNEVADA302025
AjoARIZONA292008
Lane MtnCALIFORNIA271973
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA262025
Alamo Res.ARIZONA252025
PisinimoARIZONA251993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.