BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969
7Routes In Region
42Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±399.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.17Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3895% range
±399.9%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.160.000.38
20260.160.000.38
20270.160.000.38
20280.160.000.38
20290.170.000.38

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Whit Mtn.TEXAS62017
OlneyTEXAS31986
AlbanyTEXAS21996
CampbelltonTEXAS12023
Lone OakTEXAS11975
GrafordTEXAS11988
BriteTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.