BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.2
20262.10.004.2
20272.10.004.2
20282.10.004.2
20292.10.004.2

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valley SpgsTEXAS112024
RockspringTEXAS92024
HarperTEXAS62024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS52024
BoerneTEXAS41973
MontellTEXAS42024
UtopiaTEXAS32004
Indian MtnTEXAS32024
FitzhughTEXAS11973
San SabaTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS11996
AdamsvilleTEXAS12009
LeakeyTEXAS12024
Allen CreekTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.