BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.07–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.07–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.024.4
20272.20.034.5
20282.30.054.5
20292.30.064.5
20302.30.074.5

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarperTEXAS162025
RockspringTEXAS142025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS132025
Valley SpgsTEXAS82025
MontellTEXAS62025
San SabaTEXAS52025
LeakeyTEXAS52025
BoerneTEXAS41973
Indian MtnTEXAS42025
UtopiaTEXAS32004
FitzhughTEXAS11973
PidcokeTEXAS11996
AdamsvilleTEXAS12025
Allen CreekTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.