BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.91.86.0
20263.91.86.0
20273.81.75.9
20283.81.75.9
20293.81.75.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA542019
CougarWASHINGTON332023
MontesandWASHINGTON272024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA252017
OrleansCALIFORNIA242012
RuchOREGON232023
Martins FyCALIFORNIA212009
FisherOREGON192010
SvensenOREGON181992
Raymond 2WASHINGTON182024
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA152024
Orleans 2CALIFORNIA152014
HiouchiCALIFORNIA152014
AlderpointCALIFORNIA142012
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA142017
Whiskey Spg.OREGON142022
LoraneOREGON142024
NeiltonWASHINGTON131975
HoneydewCALIFORNIA122017
Big FlatCALIFORNIA122014
WinberryOREGON122023
KamilcheWASHINGTON122024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA112023
KorbelCALIFORNIA112024
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.