BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Black Tern in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968
56Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black Tern has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6295% range
±171.7%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.62
20260.000.000.62
20270.000.000.62
20280.000.000.62
20290.000.000.62

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black Tern in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA112024
KnappMINNESOTA72024
OmroWISCONSIN72001
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN51990
Mount HorebWISCONSIN51986
MontereyMICHIGAN42008
AshbyMINNESOTA42016
PrincetonWISCONSIN41980
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN31981
KnoxINDIANA21993
RemusMICHIGAN21990
Money CreekMINNESOTA22011
St StephenMINNESOTA22005
Le CenterMINNESOTA22014
GraytownOHIO21973
HudsonWISCONSIN22003
DresserWISCONSIN22021
LoraineWISCONSIN22016
CumberlandWISCONSIN21988
ElderonWISCONSIN22001
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN22019
PardeevilleWISCONSIN21996
NashvilleMICHIGAN11970
GalesburgMICHIGAN11989
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.