BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Tern In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Black Tern in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Tern in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Black Tern In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.19–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.19–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.40.1011
20275.40.1211
20285.40.1411
20295.40.1711
20305.50.1911

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black Tern in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA892025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA622025
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA572009
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA502025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA482025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA382011
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA372024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA242008
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA242019
WashingtonIOWA222025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA202023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA192025
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA172025
ScrantonIOWA131999
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA132011
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA122025
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA112024
MaynardMINNESOTA101971
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA102025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA102025
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA91981
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA92025
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA92023
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA92019
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA82011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.