BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Black Tern in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Tern in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Black Tern In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.16–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.16–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.40.0611
20265.40.0811
20275.40.1111
20285.40.1311
20295.50.1611

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black Tern in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA852024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA852024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA732024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA662024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA572009
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA382011
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA372024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA362024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA312024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA302024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA282024
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA262024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA242024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA242008
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA242019
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA202023
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA192021
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA162022
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA152024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA142024
ScrantonIOWA131999
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA132011
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA112024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA112023
MaynardMINNESOTA101971

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.