BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±453.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+127%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±453.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±453.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.002.1
20260.670.002.1
20270.670.002.1
20280.660.002.1
20290.660.002.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 2FLORIDA1252011
CrewsvilleFLORIDA392005
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA192014
Weaver StnFLORIDA152019
ShawanoFLORIDA72002
BrowardFLORIDA51973
AndytownFLORIDA51998
ArbuckleFLORIDA52015
Sunniland GrFLORIDA42019
SalvistaFLORIDA41973
Ridge HarborFLORIDA42024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA31997
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA32012
TamiamiFLORIDA31971
Boca RatonFLORIDA31968
DavieFLORIDA32016
KendallFLORIDA31991
ClewistonFLORIDA32023
Polk CityFLORIDA22024
MabelFLORIDA22007
ChildsFLORIDA22001
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22024
IndiantownFLORIDA22007
Pennywash CrFLORIDA22018
Winter GardnFLORIDA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.