BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 462% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+462%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 462% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 102% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.10–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+102%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 102% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.10–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.070.55
20260.320.080.56
20270.330.090.56
20280.330.100.57
20290.340.100.58

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PanhandleTEXAS212016
PantexTEXAS82023
SaragosaTEXAS82022
ClaytonvilleTEXAS72022
FrionaTEXAS72022
Wildhorse LCOLORADO61999
TenmileTEXAS52023
DalhartTEXAS52024
FloydadaTEXAS42022
CactusTEXAS42018
HudsonCOLORADO32018
PostTEXAS32024
Sheridan LakCOLORADO22014
PlymellKANSAS22024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO22009
LamesaTEXAS22023
CircleTEXAS22017
WakaTEXAS22017
DoughertyTEXAS22024
YoderWYOMING22015
HaswellCOLORADO11992
NeegrandeCOLORADO11997
KarvalCOLORADO12017
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12011
ClovisNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.