BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-necked Stilt In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+342%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Black-necked Stilt In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 83% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.09–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 83% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.09–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.070.54
20270.310.070.55
20280.320.080.56
20290.330.090.56
20300.330.090.57

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantexTEXAS82023
SaragosaTEXAS82022
ClaytonvilleTEXAS72022
FrionaTEXAS72022
Wildhorse LCOLORADO61999
LamesaTEXAS52025
TenmileTEXAS52023
DalhartTEXAS52025
FloydadaTEXAS42022
CactusTEXAS42018
HudsonCOLORADO32018
PostTEXAS32024
Sheridan LakCOLORADO22014
PlymellKANSAS22024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO22009
RankinTEXAS22025
CircleTEXAS22017
WakaTEXAS22017
DoughertyTEXAS22024
PanhandleTEXAS22025
YoderWYOMING22015
HaswellCOLORADO11992
NeegrandeCOLORADO11997
JulesburgCOLORADO12015
KarvalCOLORADO12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.