BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Great Basin has surged: up 358% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+358%Since 1970
174Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-headed Grosbeak has surged in Great Basin: up 358% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Great Basin is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.7–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029
3.5Projected 2029 index
2.7–4.395% range
±21.4%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.32.54.2
20263.42.54.2
20273.42.64.3
20283.52.64.3
20293.52.74.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Great Basin.
KendallWASHINGTON392024
ConcreteWASHINGTON272024
SnowdenWASHINGTON242024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA232019
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON232024
Mt HoodOREGON212024
NewhalemWASHINGTON202024
EllensburgWASHINGTON182024
Blewett PassWASHINGTON172024
TwispWASHINGTON162024
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON151987
Wizard FallsOREGON132024
RonaldWASHINGTON132024
White ChuckWASHINGTON132024
NighthawkWASHINGTON122024
MazamaWASHINGTON122022
MacdoelCALIFORNIA112019
Ruby ValleyNEVADA112001
Badger CreekOREGON112024
GiffordIDAHO92017
JoelIDAHO92024
LakeviewOREGON92024
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON92024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON92024
Hardware RanchUTAH82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.