BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+159%Since 1970
39Routes In Region
52Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-headed Grosbeak has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.05–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029
0.33Projected 2029 index
0.05–0.6295% range
±71.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.320.030.60
20260.320.030.60
20270.320.040.61
20280.330.040.61
20290.330.050.62

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Shortgrass Prairie.
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA72024
ElbertCOLORADO62022
Kiowa 2COLORADO42023
CrawfordNEBRASKA42024
VillegreenCOLORADO32024
Cone MtnCOLORADO32013
YoderWYOMING32015
KiowaCOLORADO22017
Adams Co.COLORADO21998
TrincheraCOLORADO22022
NinaviewCOLORADO22024
ArsenalCOLORADO22012
LingleWYOMING22014
LamarCOLORADO12023
Gordon CreekCOLORADO11992
BethuneCOLORADO12016
Last Chance 2COLORADO12021
GroverCOLORADO12008
Prospect ValCOLORADO11996
LimonCOLORADO12018
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11995
NeegrandeCOLORADO12019
Fort MorganCOLORADO12008
KarvalCOLORADO12018
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.