BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-crowned Night Heron In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Black-crowned Night Heron In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.000.88
20270.350.000.88
20280.350.000.88
20290.360.000.89
20300.360.000.89

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA122017
Shawano 2FLORIDA112011
MicanopyFLORIDA71968
PinecrestFLORIDA72025
TamiamiFLORIDA71971
Plantation KFLORIDA51993
St LucieFLORIDA42025
Lake BuffumFLORIDA41999
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA32024
ClewistonFLORIDA32023
WebbFLORIDA32025
Holey LandFLORIDA32024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA31989
Wildernes PkFLORIDA32014
KenansvilleFLORIDA22024
Ft MccoyFLORIDA22023
Devils GardnFLORIDA22025
PalmdaleFLORIDA22018
Punta GordaFLORIDA22013
CroomFLORIDA22005
CorbettFLORIDA22007
Merritt IslFLORIDA22004
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA22023
Dale MabryFLORIDA11976
Myakka HeadFLORIDA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.