BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crowned Night Heron has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-crowned Night Heron In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.000.19
20250.050.000.19
20260.040.000.19
20270.040.000.18
20280.040.000.18

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY51997
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA42003
DoverDELAWARE31968
Holleyville 2DELAWARE32019
SinepuxentMARYLAND31977
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS32021
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS31973
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY32019
VillasNEW-JERSEY31981
QuinbyVIRGINIA31988
WestbrookCONNECTICUT22015
HarringtonDELAWARE22003
ElktonMARYLAND21996
FruitlandMARYLAND21983
NewarkMARYLAND21976
WalnutMARYLAND22019
MarionMASSACHUSETTS21980
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS21970
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE21970
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY21971
AncoraNEW-JERSEY21970
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY22011
BedfordNEW-YORK21982
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND21991
MysticCONNECTICUT12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.