BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Black-crowned Night Heron In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.11
20260.010.000.10
20270.010.000.10
20280.010.000.10
20290.010.000.10

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoventryvileNEW-YORK41969
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA41973
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA32022
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA31975
LovellTENNESSEE31985
DrummondALABAMA22007
AustinvillePENNSYLVANIA21970
Peters MtPENNSYLVANIA21993
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA21988
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA22013
WallandTENNESSEE21974
Pine GroveALABAMA11999
GreensportALABAMA12005
KymulgaALABAMA12004
WilliamsportMARYLAND12015
Pocono SummitPENNSYLVANIA11968
Clear SpringPENNSYLVANIA12017
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA12013
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA12007
LandisburgPENNSYLVANIA11991
ElizabethvilPENNSYLVANIA12024
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE12006
Mt OliveTENNESSEE12008
StanleyVIRGINIA12024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.